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USD/NOK Exchange Rate vs State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)
Correlation
of % moves
-28%
In sync
of periods
41%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
1,235
These move in the same direction about 41% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~8% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
40.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-28%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-33% → -23%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,235 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
13,884
1,254
Normalized
13,884
1,254
Prepared
13,884
1,254
Aligned
1,235
1,235
Invalid removed
R²(i)
8.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,235
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-28%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,234 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-28%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-28%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-6%
26 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-41%
17 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-84%
101 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
12,668
A: 12649 / B: 19
Series A
USD/NOK Exchange Rate
DEXNOUS
FRED · 13,884 raw → 13,884 prepared
Series B
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)
SPY
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.4018
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0005
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last week · ID: fred-dexnous_stock-spy_daily_5y