Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
USD/KRW Exchange Rate vs State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)
Correlation
of % moves
-11%
In sync
of periods
46%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
1,235
These move in the same direction about 46% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~1% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
SPY moves ~1 day before USD/KRW Exchange Rate
Watch SPY for an early read on USD/KRW Exchange Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-11%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-17% → -6%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,235 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
11,271
1,254
Normalized
11,271
1,254
Prepared
11,271
1,254
Aligned
1,235
1,235
Invalid removed
R²(i)
1.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,235
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
-1 day
Correlation at this shift
-29%
+17% stronger than no-shift baseline
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) shifted 1 day later. Reads: "Does USD/KRW Exchange Rate today line up with State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) 1 day ago?"
1,233 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-11%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-1 day
-29%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-8%
51 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-13%
41 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-77%
44 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
10,055
A: 10036 / B: 19
Series A
USD/KRW Exchange Rate
DEXKOUS
FRED · 11,271 raw → 11,271 prepared
Series B
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)
SPY
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
46
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.2074
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0005
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last week · ID: fred-dexkous_stock-spy_daily_5y