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USD/BRL Exchange Rate vs State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)
Correlation
of % moves
-20%
In sync
of periods
41%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
1,238
These move opposite each other about 41% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~4% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
41.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-20%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-25% → -14%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,238 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
7,868
1,254
Normalized
7,868
1,254
Prepared
7,868
1,254
Aligned
1,238
1,238
Invalid removed
R²(i)
3.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,238
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-20%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,237 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-20%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-20%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-7%
52 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+35%
44 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-80%
153 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
6,646
A: 6630 / B: 16
Series A
USD/BRL Exchange Rate
DEXBZUS
FRED · 7,868 raw → 7,868 prepared
Series B
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)
SPY
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.2549
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0004
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 days ago · ID: fred-dexbzus_stock-spy_daily_5y