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Correlation
of % moves
-31%
In sync
of periods
60%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
59
These move opposite each other about 60% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~9% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
US CPI moves ~4 months before SPY
Watch US CPI for an early read on SPY.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
AI Analysis
The 60% in-sync rate suggests that inflation trends, as measured by the CPI, influence investor sentiment and asset pricing, often leading to shifts in SPY performance due to changing expectations around monetary policy. The data confirms this relationship, with SPY typically lagging CPI movements by four months, indicating that inflationary pressures can weigh on equity markets. Going forward, investors should closely monitor upcoming CPI releases for potential impacts on SPY valuations. Not investment advice.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
60.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-31%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-52% → -5%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
951
1,255
Normalized
951
1,255
Prepared
951
61
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
9.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+4 months
Correlation at this shift
-41%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) shifted 4 months earlier. Reads: "Does US CPI today line up with State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) 4 months from now?"
54 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-31%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+4 months
-41%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-29%
35 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-28%
23 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
894
A: 892 / B: 2
Series A
US CPI
CPIAUCSL
FRED · 951 raw → 951 prepared
Series B
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)
SPY
Stock · 1,255 raw → 61 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-3.6431
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0222
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 6 days ago · ID: fred-cpiaucsl-vs-stock-spy-monthly