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HY Bond Spread vs State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)
Correlation
of % moves
-61%
In sync
of periods
31%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-20
752
These move opposite each other about 31% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~37% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
31.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-61%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-65% → -57%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
752 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
786
1,254
Normalized
786
1,254
Prepared
786
1,254
Aligned
752
752
Invalid removed
R²(i)
37.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
752
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-61%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
751 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-61%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-61%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+16%
23 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+27%
25 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-82%
201 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
536
A: 34 / B: 502
Series A
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 786 raw → 786 prepared
Series B
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)
SPY
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.2707
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0006
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 days ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_stock-spy_daily_5y