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HY Bond Spread vs State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)
Correlation
of % moves
-61%
In sync
of periods
32%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-04
750
These move in the same direction about 32% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~37% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
32%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-61%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-65% → -57%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
750 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
785
1,253
Normalized
785
1,253
Prepared
785
1,253
Aligned
750
750
Invalid removed
R²(i)
37%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
749
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-61%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
749 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-61%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-61%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+25%
26 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+67%
20 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-78%
187 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
538
A: 35 / B: 503
Series A
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 785 raw → 785 prepared
Series B
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)
SPY
Stock · 1,253 raw → 1,253 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
15
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.2786
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0006
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_stock-spy_daily_5y