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Correlation
of values
+91%
In sync
of periods
64%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
119
These move in the same direction about 64% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~82% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
64.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+91%
Based on values
95% CI
+87% → +93%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
119 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,000
2,513
Normalized
1,000
2,513
Prepared
1,000
121
Aligned
119
119
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
82.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
119
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+91%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
119 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+91%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+91%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-6%
74 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-57%
42 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
883
A: 881 / B: 2
Series A
Total Consumer Credit
TOTALSL
FRED · 1,000 raw → 1,000 prepared
Series B
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,513 raw → 121 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0024
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-6586.2198
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-sp500_fred-totalsl_monthly_5y