Correlation
of values
+56%
In sync
of periods
58%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-01
2,497
These move in the same direction about 58% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~31% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
57.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+56%
Based on values
95% CI
+53% → +59%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
2,497 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
2,515
5,837
Normalized
2,515
5,837
Prepared
2,515
5,837
Aligned
2,497
2,497
Invalid removed
R²(i)
31.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
2,497
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+56%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
2,497 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+56%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+56%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+16%
80 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+41%
61 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-58%
108 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
3,358
A: 18 / B: 3340
Series A
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,515 raw → 2,515 prepared
Series B
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate
T5YIFR
FRED · 5,837 raw → 5,837 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
27
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0001
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.6816
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 days ago · ID: fred-sp500_fred-t5yifr_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.