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Correlation
of values
+61%
In sync
of periods
59%
History
daysdays · through 2026-07-07
2,494
These move in the same direction about 59% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~37% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
59%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+61%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
2,494 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
5,881
2,512
Normalized
5,881
2,512
Prepared
5,881
2,512
Aligned
2,494
2,494
Invalid removed
37%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
2,494
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+61%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
2,494 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+61%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+61%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+11%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+7%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-64%
17 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
3,405
A: 3387 / B: 18
Series A
10Y Breakeven Inflation
T10YIE
FRED · 5,881 raw → 5,881 prepared
Series B
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,512 raw → 2,512 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
19
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
2419.4544
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-1040.9621
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-sp500_fred-t10yie_daily_5y