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Correlation
of values
-35%
In sync
of periods
31%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-18
521
These move opposite each other about 31% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~12% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
30.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-35%
Based on values
95% CI
-43% → -27%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
521 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,688
2,515
Normalized
1,688
2,515
Prepared
1,688
522
Aligned
521
521
Invalid removed
R²(i)
12.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
521
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-35%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
521 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-35%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-35%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-14%
46 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+33%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-73%
188 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,168
A: 1167 / B: 1
Series A
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,688 raw → 1,688 prepared
Series B
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,515 raw → 522 prepared
Sign agreement
17.1%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-790.9021
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3692.7236
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-sp500_fred-stlfsi4_weekly_5y