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SOL vs FRetail SalesSolana (SOL) vs Retail Sales
Correlation
of % moves
-27%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
24
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~7% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
SOL moves ~12 months before Retail Sales
Watch SOL for an early read on Retail Sales.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-27%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-62% → +16%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
24 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
729
412
Normalized
729
412
Prepared
25
412
Aligned
24
24
Invalid removed
R²(i)
7.4%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
24
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -13 to 13 months.
Selected shift
+12 months
Correlation at this shift
-61%
+34% stronger than no-shift baseline
Retail Sales shifted 12 months earlier. Reads: "Does Solana (SOL) today line up with Retail Sales 12 months from now?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-27%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+12 months
-61%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-65%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-64%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-68%
11 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
389
A: 1 / B: 388
Series A
Solana (SOL)
SOL
Crypto · 729 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Retail Sales
RSAFS
FRED · 412 raw → 412 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0100
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0036
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: crypto-sol_fred-rsafs_monthly_5y