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Solana (SOL) vs Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
Correlation
of % moves
+46%
In sync
of periods
73%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
23
These move in the same direction about 73% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~21% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
SOL moves ~10 months before Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
Watch SOL for an early read on Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Swings around
Their relationship swings around — sometimes tight, sometimes loose. Don't trust a single snapshot.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
72.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+46%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+4% → +74%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
23 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
729
707
Normalized
729
707
Prepared
25
707
Aligned
23
23
Invalid removed
R²(i)
20.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
23
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 months.
Selected shift
+10 months
Correlation at this shift
+61%
+15% stronger than no-shift baseline
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities shifted 10 months earlier. Reads: "Does Solana (SOL) today line up with Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 10 months from now?"
12 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+46%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+10 months
+61%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-4%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+17%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-61%
6 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
686
A: 2 / B: 684
Series A
Solana (SOL)
SOL
Crypto · 729 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 707 raw → 707 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
8
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.0935
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0215
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: crypto-sol_fred-recprousm156n_monthly_5y