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Correlation
of values
+30%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
97
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~9% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Spot Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate moves ~16 months before Secured Overnight Financing Rate
Watch Spot Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate for an early read on Secured Overnight Financing Rate.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+30%
Based on values
95% CI
+11% → +48%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
97 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
2,023
964
Normalized
2,023
964
Prepared
98
964
Aligned
97
97
Invalid removed
R²(i)
9.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points
97
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-16 months
Correlation at this shift
+84%
+54% stronger than no-shift baseline
Spot Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate shifted 16 months later. Reads: "Does Secured Overnight Financing Rate today line up with Spot Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate 16 months ago?"
81 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+30%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-16 months
+84%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-4%
29 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+77%
18 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-45%
49 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
868
A: 1 / B: 867
Series A
Secured Overnight Financing Rate
SOFR
FRED · 2,023 raw → 98 prepared
Series B
Spot Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate
WTISPLC
FRED · 964 raw → 964 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
2.6938
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
61.4499
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-sofr_fred-wtisplc_monthly_5y