SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+6%
of values
In sync
43%
of periods
History
422
weeks · through 2026-18
These move in the same direction about 43% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~0% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Fed Balance Sheet moves ~12 weeks before Secured Overnight Financing Rate
Watch Fed Balance Sheet for an early read on Secured Overnight Financing Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
42.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+6%
Based on values
95% CI
-3% → +16%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
422 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,220
2,018
Normalized
1,220
2,018
Prepared
1,220
422
Aligned
422
422
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
0.4%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
422
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+19%
+13% stronger than no-shift baseline
Secured Overnight Financing Rate shifted 12 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does Fed Balance Sheet today line up with Secured Overnight Financing Rate 12 weeks from now?"
410 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+6%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+12 weeks
+19%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-11%
33 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+1%
54 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-63%
162 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
798
A: 798 / B: 0
Series A
Fed Balance Sheet
WALCL
FRED · 1,220 raw → 1,220 prepared
Series B
Secured Overnight Financing Rate
SOFR
FRED · 2,018 raw → 422 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
2
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.1506
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-sofr_fred-walcl_5y