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Sandisk Corporation Common Stock (SNDK) vs Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
Correlation
of % moves
-34%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
15
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~12% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
SNDK moves ~1 month before Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
Watch SNDK for an early read on Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-34%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-74% → +23%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
15 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
327
707
Normalized
327
707
Prepared
17
707
Aligned
15
15
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
11.8%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
15
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -4 to 4 months.
Selected shift
+1 month
Correlation at this shift
-43%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities shifted 1 month earlier. Reads: "Does Sandisk Corporation Common Stock (SNDK) today line up with Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 1 month from now?"
13 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-34%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+1 month
-43%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-28%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-2%
7 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
694
A: 2 / B: 692
Series A
Sandisk Corporation Common Stock (SNDK)
SNDK
Stock · 327 raw → 17 prepared
Series B
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 707 raw → 707 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.4642
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.1252
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-recprousm156n_stock-sndk_monthly_5y