SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
Overview
Relationship
These move opposite each other about 51% of the time
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Read
When one moves up, the other tends to move down.
The saved window keeps correlation, overlap, alignment, and freshness anchored to the same computed record.
What to Watch
Drifting from pattern
Recent correlation (+21%) is running 1.2σ away from the long-run average of -52%.
Fed Balance Sheet moves ~12 weeks before SHOP
Watch Fed Balance Sheet for an early read on SHOP.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (+7%) and fall (-4%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-69%
+16% stronger than no-shift baseline
Fed Balance Sheet shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does Shopify Inc. Class A subordinate voting shares today line up with Fed Balance Sheet 12 weeks ago?"
249 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-52%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 weeks
-69%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-52%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-61% → -43%
Likely range
R²
27.4%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
50.8%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
261
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
261 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,255
1,220
Normalized
1,255
1,220
Prepared
261
1,220
Aligned
261
261
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+7%
54 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-4%
73 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-49%
122 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
959
A: 0 / B: 959
Series A
Shopify Inc. Class A subordinate voting shares
SHOP
Market cap 165.8B · 7,600 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 261 prepared
Series B
WALCL
FRED · 1,220 raw → 1,220 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-10908.6656
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
8731172.9764
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 hours ago · ID: fred-walcl_stock-shop_5y