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The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) vs St. Louis Financial Stress Index
Correlation
of % moves
-44%
In sync
of periods
39%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-32
259
These move in the same direction about 39% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~19% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
39%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-44%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-53% → -34%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
259 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,254
1,702
Normalized
1,254
1,702
Prepared
261
1,702
Aligned
259
259
Invalid removed
R²(i)
19%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
258
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-44%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
258 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-44%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-44%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-8%
59 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-10%
32 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-72%
149 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,445
A: 2 / B: 1443
Series A
The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW)
SCHW
Stock · 1,254 raw → 261 prepared
Series B
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,702 raw → 1,702 prepared
Sign agreement
9.3%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
13
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-2.5799
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0036
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-stlfsi4_stock-schw_weekly_5y