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Correlation
of values
-33%
In sync
of periods
46%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
651
These move in the same direction about 46% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~11% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-33%
Based on values
95% CI
-40% → -26%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
651 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
672
797
Normalized
672
797
Prepared
672
797
Aligned
651
651
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
10.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
651
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-33%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
651 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-33%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-33%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+2%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-49%
21 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
167
A: 21 / B: 146
Series A
Consumer Sentiment
UMCSENT
FRED · 672 raw → 672 prepared
Series B
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 797 raw → 797 prepared
Sign agreement
61.6%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
41
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0241
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.4438
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-sahmrealtime_fred-umcsent_monthly_5y