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Correlation
of values
-40%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
280
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~16% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
10Y Breakeven Inflation moves ~3 months before Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Watch 10Y Breakeven Inflation for an early read on Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-40%
Based on values
95% CI
-50% → -30%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
280 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
5,862
797
Normalized
5,862
797
Prepared
282
797
Aligned
280
280
Invalid removed
R²(i)
16.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
280
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+3 months
Correlation at this shift
-53%
+12% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator shifted 3 months earlier. Reads: "Does 10Y Breakeven Inflation today line up with Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator 3 months from now?"
274 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-40%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+3 months
-53%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+5%
57 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+1%
35 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-38%
126 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
519
A: 2 / B: 517
Series A
10Y Breakeven Inflation
T10YIE
FRED · 5,862 raw → 282 prepared
Series B
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 797 raw → 797 prepared
Sign agreement
56.6%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
15
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.3545
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3.3130
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-sahmrealtime_fred-t10yie_monthly_5y