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Correlation
of values
+32%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
389
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~10% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
St. Louis Financial Stress Index moves ~3 months before Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Watch St. Louis Financial Stress Index for an early read on Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+32%
Based on values
95% CI
+23% → +41%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
389 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
797
1,692
Normalized
797
1,692
Prepared
797
390
Aligned
389
389
Invalid removed
R²(i)
10.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
389
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-3 months
Correlation at this shift
+52%
+20% stronger than no-shift baseline
St. Louis Financial Stress Index shifted 3 months later. Reads: "Does Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator today line up with St. Louis Financial Stress Index 3 months ago?"
383 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+32%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-3 months
+52%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+71%
33 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+11%
41 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-27%
64 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
409
A: 408 / B: 1
Series A
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 797 raw → 797 prepared
Series B
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,692 raw → 390 prepared
Sign agreement
61.5%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
47
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.2778
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.1060
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-sahmrealtime_fred-stlfsi4_monthly_5y