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Correlation
of values
+91%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
281
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~84% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+91%
Based on values
95% CI
+89% → +93%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
281 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
412
1,225
Normalized
412
1,225
Prepared
412
283
Aligned
281
281
Invalid removed
R²(i)
83.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
281
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+91%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
281 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+91%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+91%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+75%
84 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+37%
35 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-86%
99 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
133
A: 131 / B: 2
Series A
Retail Sales
RSAFS
FRED · 412 raw → 412 prepared
Series B
Fed Balance Sheet
WALCL
FRED · 1,225 raw → 283 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
17.7628
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-4235693.6121
Linear regression intercept.
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