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Correlation
of values
+44%
In sync
of periods
44%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
412
These move in the same direction about 44% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~19% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Retail Sales moves ~18 months before US Economic Policy Uncertainty
Watch Retail Sales for an early read on US Economic Policy Uncertainty.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
44.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+44%
Based on values
95% CI
+36% → +51%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
412 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
412
15,133
Normalized
412
15,133
Prepared
412
498
Aligned
412
412
Invalid removed
R²(i)
19.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
412
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
+51%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
US Economic Policy Uncertainty shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Retail Sales today line up with US Economic Policy Uncertainty 18 months from now?"
394 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+44%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
+51%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+17%
27 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+68%
21 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-59%
69 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
86
A: 0 / B: 86
Series A
Retail Sales
RSAFS
FRED · 412 raw → 412 prepared
Series B
US Economic Policy Uncertainty
USEPUINDXD
FRED · 15,133 raw → 498 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0002
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
36.2967
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-rsafs_fred-usepuindxd_monthly_5y