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Correlation
of values
-49%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
412
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~24% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-49%
Based on values
95% CI
-56% → -42%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
412 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
412
11,110
Normalized
412
11,110
Prepared
412
534
Aligned
412
412
Invalid removed
R²(i)
24.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
412
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-49%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
412 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-49%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-49%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-7%
33 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+45%
26 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-64%
56 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
122
A: 0 / B: 122
Series A
Retail Sales
RSAFS
FRED · 412 raw → 412 prepared
Series B
10Y-3M Yield Spread
T10Y3M
FRED · 11,110 raw → 534 prepared
Sign agreement
87.1%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3.0138
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-rsafs_fred-t10y3m_monthly_5y