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Correlation
of values
+70%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-36
719
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~49% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Fed Balance Sheet moves ~12 weeks before Overnight Reverse Repo
Watch Fed Balance Sheet for an early read on Overnight Reverse Repo.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+70%
Based on values
95% CI
+66% → +74%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
719 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
3,321
1,238
Normalized
3,321
1,238
Prepared
720
1,238
Aligned
719
719
Invalid removed
R²(i)
49%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
719
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+75%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
Fed Balance Sheet shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does Overnight Reverse Repo today line up with Fed Balance Sheet 12 weeks ago?"
665 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+70%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 weeks
+75%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-38%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+14%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-35%
15 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
520
A: 1 / B: 519
Series A
Overnight Reverse Repo
RRPONTSYD
FRED · 3,321 raw → 720 prepared
Series B
Fed Balance Sheet
WALCL
FRED · 1,238 raw → 1,238 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
2033.8941
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4895844.6981
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-rrpontsyd_fred-walcl_weekly_5y