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Correlation
of values
+71%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-27
710
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~50% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Fed Balance Sheet moves ~12 weeks before Overnight Reverse Repo
Watch Fed Balance Sheet for an early read on Overnight Reverse Repo.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+71%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
710 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
3,277
1,229
Normalized
3,277
1,229
Prepared
711
1,229
Aligned
710
710
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
50%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
710
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+76%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
Fed Balance Sheet shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does Overnight Reverse Repo today line up with Fed Balance Sheet 12 weeks ago?"
656 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+71%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 weeks
+76%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+11%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-48%
13 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
520
A: 1 / B: 519
Series A
Overnight Reverse Repo
RRPONTSYD
FRED · 3,277 raw → 711 prepared
Series B
Fed Balance Sheet
WALCL
FRED · 1,229 raw → 1,229 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
2054.2196
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4864281.5005
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-rrpontsyd_fred-walcl_weekly_5y