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Correlation
of values
-37%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
177
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~14% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-37%
Based on values
95% CI
-49% → -23%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
177 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
940
3,258
Normalized
940
3,258
Prepared
940
179
Aligned
177
177
Invalid removed
R²(i)
13.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
177
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-37%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
177 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-37%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-37%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-8%
20 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-11%
35 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-8%
105 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
765
A: 763 / B: 2
Series A
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
FRED · 940 raw → 940 prepared
Series B
Overnight Reverse Repo
RRPONTSYD
FRED · 3,258 raw → 179 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
2
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-137.1155
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1071.6302
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-rrpontsyd_fred-unrate_monthly_5y