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Correlation
of values
-36%
In sync
of periods
46%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
180
These move in the same direction about 46% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~13% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
46%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-36%
Based on values
95% CI
-48% → -23%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
180 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
943
3,321
Normalized
943
3,321
Prepared
943
182
Aligned
180
180
Invalid removed
R²(i)
13%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
180
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-36%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
180 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-36%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-36%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-8%
20 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-10%
36 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-8%
107 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
765
A: 763 / B: 2
Series A
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
FRED · 943 raw → 943 prepared
Series B
Overnight Reverse Repo
RRPONTSYD
FRED · 3,321 raw → 182 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
2
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-134.5353
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1050.1121
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-rrpontsyd_fred-unrate_monthly_5y