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Correlation
of values
-48%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
178
These move in the same direction about 55% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~23% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Consumer Sentiment moves ~4 months before Overnight Reverse Repo
Watch Consumer Sentiment for an early read on Overnight Reverse Repo.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
55%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-48%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
178 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
673
3,277
Normalized
673
3,277
Prepared
673
180
Aligned
178
178
Invalid removed
23%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
178
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+4 months
Correlation at this shift
-55%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
Overnight Reverse Repo shifted 4 months earlier. Reads: "Does Consumer Sentiment today line up with Overnight Reverse Repo 4 months from now?"
150 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-48%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+4 months
-55%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-10%
42 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-8%
47 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-67%
73 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
497
A: 495 / B: 2
Series A
Consumer Sentiment
UMCSENT
FRED · 673 raw → 673 prepared
Series B
Overnight Reverse Repo
RRPONTSYD
FRED · 3,277 raw → 180 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
2
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-20.7278
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2017.8484
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-rrpontsyd_fred-umcsent_monthly_5y