Correlation
of values
-50%
In sync
of periods
56%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
176
These move opposite each other about 56% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~25% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
55.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-50%
Based on values
95% CI
-61% → -38%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
176 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
671
3,233
Normalized
671
3,233
Prepared
671
178
Aligned
176
176
Invalid removed
R²(i)
25.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
176
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-50%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
176 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-50%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-50%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-15%
47 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-12%
50 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-56%
78 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
497
A: 495 / B: 2
Series A
Consumer Sentiment
UMCSENT
FRED · 671 raw → 671 prepared
Series B
Overnight Reverse Repo
RRPONTSYD
FRED · 3,233 raw → 178 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
2
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-22.4889
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2170.3348
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 5 days ago · ID: fred-rrpontsyd_fred-umcsent_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.