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Correlation
of values
+48%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
177
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~23% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Overnight Reverse Repo moves ~18 months before Total Consumer Credit
Watch Overnight Reverse Repo for an early read on Total Consumer Credit.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+48%
Based on values
95% CI
+36% → +59%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
177 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,000
3,258
Normalized
1,000
3,258
Prepared
1,000
179
Aligned
177
177
Invalid removed
R²(i)
23.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
177
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+66%
+18% stronger than no-shift baseline
Overnight Reverse Repo shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Total Consumer Credit today line up with Overnight Reverse Repo 18 months ago?"
135 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+48%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+66%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+63%
71 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-42%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-17%
81 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
825
A: 823 / B: 2
Series A
Total Consumer Credit
TOTALSL
FRED · 1,000 raw → 1,000 prepared
Series B
Overnight Reverse Repo
RRPONTSYD
FRED · 3,258 raw → 179 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0004
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-1119.1964
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-rrpontsyd_fred-totalsl_monthly_5y