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Correlation
of values
+29%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
daysdays · through 2026-06-08
3,258
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~8% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+29%
Based on values
95% CI
+26% → +32%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
3,258 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
3,258
5,862
Normalized
3,258
5,862
Prepared
3,258
5,862
Aligned
3,258
3,258
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
8.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
3,258
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+29%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
3,258 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+29%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+29%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+20%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-49%
15 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,604
A: 0 / B: 2604
Series A
Overnight Reverse Repo
RRPONTSYD
FRED · 3,258 raw → 3,258 prepared
Series B
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate
T5YIFR
FRED · 5,862 raw → 5,862 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
30
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0001
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.0657
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-rrpontsyd_fred-t5yifr_daily_5y