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Correlation
of values
-50%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-08
3,321
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~25% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-50%
Based on values
95% CI
-52% → -47%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
3,321 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
12,564
3,321
Normalized
12,564
3,321
Prepared
12,564
3,321
Aligned
3,321
3,321
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
25%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
3,321
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-50%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
3,321 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-50%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-50%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+32%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-85%
17 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
9,243
A: 9243 / B: 0
Series A
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
T10Y2Y
FRED · 12,564 raw → 12,564 prepared
Series B
Overnight Reverse Repo
RRPONTSYD
FRED · 3,321 raw → 3,321 prepared
Sign agreement
83.2%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
30
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-424.9697
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
701.9346
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-rrpontsyd_fred-t10y2y_daily_5y