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Correlation
of values
-50%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
daysdays · through 2026-06-08
3,258
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~25% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-50%
Based on values
95% CI
-53% → -48%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
3,258 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
12,501
3,258
Normalized
12,501
3,258
Prepared
12,501
3,258
Aligned
3,258
3,258
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
25.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
3,258
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-50%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
3,258 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-50%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-50%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+30%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-71%
13 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
9,243
A: 9243 / B: 0
Series A
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
T10Y2Y
FRED · 12,501 raw → 12,501 prepared
Series B
Overnight Reverse Repo
RRPONTSYD
FRED · 3,258 raw → 3,258 prepared
Sign agreement
82.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
30
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-429.5738
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
715.3506
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-rrpontsyd_fred-t10y2y_daily_5y