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Correlation
of values
+50%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
178
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~25% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Overnight Reverse Repo moves ~18 months before Retail Sales
Watch Overnight Reverse Repo for an early read on Retail Sales.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+50%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
178 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
413
3,277
Normalized
413
3,277
Prepared
413
180
Aligned
178
178
Invalid removed
25%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
178
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+62%
+12% stronger than no-shift baseline
Overnight Reverse Repo shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Retail Sales today line up with Overnight Reverse Repo 18 months ago?"
136 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+50%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+62%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+4%
51 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-10%
26 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-23%
85 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
237
A: 235 / B: 2
Series A
Retail Sales
RSAFS
FRED · 413 raw → 413 prepared
Series B
Overnight Reverse Repo
RRPONTSYD
FRED · 3,277 raw → 180 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0026
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-998.6319
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-rrpontsyd_fred-rsafs_monthly_5y