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Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) vs Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
Correlation
of % moves
-26%
In sync
of periods
44%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
59
These move in the same direction about 44% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~7% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities moves ~2 months before RL
Watch Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities for an early read on RL.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
43.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-26%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-49% → -0%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,255
707
Normalized
1,255
707
Prepared
61
707
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
R²(i)
6.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-2 months
Correlation at this shift
+34%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities shifted 2 months later. Reads: "Does Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) today line up with Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 2 months ago?"
56 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-26%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-2 months
+34%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-13%
19 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-52%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-55%
33 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
650
A: 2 / B: 648
Series A
Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL)
RL
Stock · 1,255 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 707 raw → 707 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-2.3594
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0600
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-recprousm156n_stock-rl_monthly_5y