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Rocket Companies, Inc. (RKT) vs 30Y Mortgage Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-46%
In sync
of periods
34%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-36
260
These move in the same direction about 34% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~21% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
34%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-46%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-55% → -36%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
260 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,254
2,893
Normalized
1,254
2,893
Prepared
261
2,893
Aligned
260
260
Invalid removed
R²(i)
21%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
259
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-46%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
259 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-46%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-46%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-30%
42 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-6%
39 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-65%
158 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,634
A: 1 / B: 2633
Series A
Rocket Companies, Inc. (RKT)
RKT
Stock · 1,254 raw → 261 prepared
Series B
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,893 raw → 2,893 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
16
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1615
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0032
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-mortgage30us_stock-rkt_weekly_5y