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Rivian Automotive, Inc. Class A Common Stock (RIVN) vs PCE Price Index
Correlation
of % moves
-36%
In sync
of periods
41%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
57
These move in the same direction about 41% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~13% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
PCE Price Index moves ~12 months before RIVN
Watch PCE Price Index for an early read on RIVN.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
41%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-36%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-57% → -11%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
57 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,209
811
Normalized
1,209
811
Prepared
59
811
Aligned
57
57
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
13%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
56
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-12 months
Correlation at this shift
-44%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
PCE Price Index shifted 12 months later. Reads: "Does Rivian Automotive, Inc. Class A Common Stock (RIVN) today line up with PCE Price Index 12 months ago?"
44 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-36%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 months
-44%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-31%
23 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-57%
33 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
756
A: 2 / B: 754
Series A
Rivian Automotive, Inc. Class A Common Stock (RIVN)
RIVN
Stock · 1,209 raw → 59 prepared
Series B
PCE Price Index
PCEPI
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0042
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0028
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-pcepi_stock-rivn_monthly_5y