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Correlation
of % moves
+30%
In sync
of periods
59%
History
daysdays · through 2026-06-08
1,252
These move in the same direction about 59% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~9% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
59.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+30%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+25% → +35%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,252 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
2,513
Normalized
1,255
2,513
Prepared
1,255
2,513
Aligned
1,252
1,252
Invalid removed
R²(i)
8.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,252
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+30%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,251 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+30%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+30%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+12%
61 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+11%
48 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-69%
41 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,264
A: 3 / B: 1261
Series A
Royal Gold Inc (RGLD)
RGLD
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,513 raw → 2,513 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
13
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1602
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0004
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-sp500_stock-rgld_daily_5y