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Correlation
of values
-41%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
623
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~17% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-41%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
623 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
673
708
Normalized
673
708
Prepared
673
708
Aligned
623
623
Invalid removed
17%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
623
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-41%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
623 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-41%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-41%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+6%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+6%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-25%
22 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
135
A: 50 / B: 85
Series A
Consumer Sentiment
UMCSENT
FRED · 673 raw → 673 prepared
Series B
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 708 raw → 708 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
37
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.6509
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
62.1627
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-recprousm156n_fred-umcsent_monthly_5y