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Correlation
of values
-40%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
625
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~16% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-40%
Based on values
95% CI
-47% → -33%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
625 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
675
710
Normalized
675
710
Prepared
675
710
Aligned
625
625
Invalid removed
R²(i)
16%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
625
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-40%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
625 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-40%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-40%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+37%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+45%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-26%
22 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
135
A: 50 / B: 85
Series A
Consumer Sentiment
UMCSENT
FRED · 675 raw → 675 prepared
Series B
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 710 raw → 710 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
37
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.6342
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
60.8704
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-recprousm156n_fred-umcsent_monthly_5y