SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-15%
of values
In sync
54%
of periods
History
706
days · through 2026-03-01
These move opposite each other about 54% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~2% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Swings around
Their relationship swings around — sometimes tight, sometimes loose. Don't trust a single snapshot.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-15%
Based on values
95% CI
-22% → -8%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
706 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
807
706
Normalized
807
706
Prepared
807
706
Aligned
706
706
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
2.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
706
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-15%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
706 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-15%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-15%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+29%
80 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+17%
59 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-2%
110 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
101
A: 101 / B: 0
Series A
Bank Reserves
TOTRESNS
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Series B
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 706 raw → 706 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0030
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
10.5921
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-recprousm156n_fred-totresns_5y