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Correlation
of values
-41%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
280
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~17% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-41%
Based on values
95% CI
-50% → -31%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
280 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
5,862
707
Normalized
5,862
707
Prepared
282
707
Aligned
280
280
Invalid removed
R²(i)
16.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
280
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-41%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
280 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-41%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-41%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+2%
59 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+22%
43 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-35%
117 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
429
A: 2 / B: 427
Series A
10Y Breakeven Inflation
T10YIE
FRED · 5,862 raw → 282 prepared
Series B
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 707 raw → 707 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
6
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-23.5910
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
56.2292
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-recprousm156n_fred-t10yie_monthly_5y