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Correlation
of values
-42%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
388
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~18% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-42%
Based on values
95% CI
-50% → -34%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
388 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
533
388
Normalized
533
388
Prepared
533
388
Aligned
388
388
Invalid removed
R²(i)
17.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
388
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-42%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
388 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-42%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-42%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-20%
32 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-52%
35 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-44%
66 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
145
A: 145 / B: 0
Series A
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 533 raw → 533 prepared
Series B
U-6 Unemployment Rate
U6RATE
FRED · 388 raw → 388 prepared
Sign agreement
93.6%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.1514
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
11.7874
Linear regression intercept.
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