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Correlation
of values
+29%
In sync
of periods
57%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
281
These move in the same direction about 57% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~9% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
56.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+29%
Based on values
95% CI
+18% → +40%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
281 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
5,862
533
Normalized
5,862
533
Prepared
282
533
Aligned
281
281
Invalid removed
R²(i)
8.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
281
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+29%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
281 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+29%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+29%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+16%
69 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+48%
52 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-61%
97 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
253
A: 1 / B: 252
Series A
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate
T5YIFR
FRED · 5,862 raw → 282 prepared
Series B
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 533 raw → 533 prepared
Sign agreement
91.1%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
20
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.6692
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.4734
Linear regression intercept.
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