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Correlation
of values
+38%
In sync
of periods
57%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
281
These move in the same direction about 57% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~14% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
5Y Breakeven Inflation moves ~16 months before 10-Year Real Interest Rate
Watch 5Y Breakeven Inflation for an early read on 10-Year Real Interest Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
57.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+38%
Based on values
95% CI
+27% → +47%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
281 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
5,862
533
Normalized
5,862
533
Prepared
282
533
Aligned
281
281
Invalid removed
R²(i)
14.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
281
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+16 months
Correlation at this shift
+51%
+14% stronger than no-shift baseline
10-Year Real Interest Rate shifted 16 months earlier. Reads: "Does 5Y Breakeven Inflation today line up with 10-Year Real Interest Rate 16 months from now?"
265 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+38%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+16 months
+51%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+23%
76 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+16%
55 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-58%
87 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
253
A: 1 / B: 252
Series A
5Y Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
FRED · 5,862 raw → 282 prepared
Series B
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 533 raw → 533 prepared
Sign agreement
90.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
31
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.4862
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0790
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-reaintratrearat10y_fred-t5yie_monthly_5y