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Correlation
of values
-25%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
536
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~6% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-25%
Based on values
95% CI
-33% → -17%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
536 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
12,564
536
Normalized
12,564
536
Prepared
604
536
Aligned
536
536
Invalid removed
R²(i)
6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
536
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-25%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
536 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-25%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-25%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+27%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+10%
23 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-59%
27 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
68
A: 68 / B: 0
Series A
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
T10Y2Y
FRED · 12,564 raw → 604 prepared
Series B
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 536 raw → 536 prepared
Sign agreement
83.2%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
12
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.5293
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.9063
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-reaintratrearat10y_fred-t10y2y_monthly_5y