SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+55%
of values
In sync
49%
of periods
History
120
months · through 2026-04
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~30% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
S&P 500 moves ~18 months before 10-Year Real Interest Rate
Watch S&P 500 for an early read on 10-Year Real Interest Rate.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+55%
Based on values
95% CI
+41% → +66%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
120 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
2,515
532
Normalized
2,515
532
Prepared
121
532
Aligned
120
120
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
30.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
120
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
+64%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
10-Year Real Interest Rate shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does S&P 500 today line up with 10-Year Real Interest Rate 18 months from now?"
102 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+55%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
+64%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-1%
43 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+48%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-63%
61 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
413
A: 1 / B: 412
Series A
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,515 raw → 121 prepared
Series B
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 532 raw → 532 prepared
Sign agreement
87.5%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0003
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.2214
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-reaintratrearat10y_fred-sp500_5y