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RBC vs FRetail SalesRBC Bearings Incorporated (RBC) vs Retail Sales
Correlation
of % moves
+13%
In sync
of periods
60%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
50
These move in the same direction about 60% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~2% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
RBC moves ~17 months before Retail Sales
Watch RBC for an early read on Retail Sales.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
60.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+13%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-16% → +40%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
50 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,008
412
Normalized
1,008
412
Prepared
51
412
Aligned
50
50
Invalid removed
R²(i)
1.8%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
50
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+17 months
Correlation at this shift
-40%
+27% stronger than no-shift baseline
Retail Sales shifted 17 months earlier. Reads: "Does RBC Bearings Incorporated (RBC) today line up with Retail Sales 17 months from now?"
26 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+13%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+17 months
-40%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-32%
21 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+7%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-63%
19 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
363
A: 1 / B: 362
Series A
RBC Bearings Incorporated (RBC)
RBC
Stock · 1,008 raw → 51 prepared
Series B
Retail Sales
RSAFS
FRED · 412 raw → 412 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0220
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0028
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-rsafs_stock-rbc_monthly_5y