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PayPal Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (PYPL) vs Consumer Sentiment
Correlation
of % moves
+47%
In sync
of periods
71%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
58
These move in the same direction about 71% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~22% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
71.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+47%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+24% → +65%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
58 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
671
Normalized
1,254
671
Prepared
60
671
Aligned
58
58
Invalid removed
R²(i)
22.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
58
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+47%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
57 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+47%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+47%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+10%
16 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+12%
24 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-67%
17 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
615
A: 2 / B: 613
Series A
PayPal Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (PYPL)
PYPL
Stock · 1,254 raw → 60 prepared
Series B
Consumer Sentiment
UMCSENT
FRED · 671 raw → 671 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.3211
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0019
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-umcsent_stock-pypl_monthly_5y