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Portillo's Inc. Class A Common Stock (PTLO) vs Consumer Sentiment
Correlation
of % moves
+31%
In sync
of periods
61%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
56
These move in the same direction about 61% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~9% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
PTLO moves ~17 months before Consumer Sentiment
Watch PTLO for an early read on Consumer Sentiment.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
61%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+31%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
56 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,182
673
Normalized
1,182
673
Prepared
58
673
Aligned
56
56
Invalid removed
9%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
55
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+17 months
Correlation at this shift
+40%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
Consumer Sentiment shifted 17 months earlier. Reads: "Does Portillo's Inc. Class A Common Stock (PTLO) today line up with Consumer Sentiment 17 months from now?"
38 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+31%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+17 months
+40%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+4%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+23%
22 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-55%
22 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
619
A: 2 / B: 617
Series A
Portillo's Inc. Class A Common Stock (PTLO)
PTLO
Stock · 1,182 raw → 58 prepared
Series B
Consumer Sentiment
UMCSENT
FRED · 673 raw → 673 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
8
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1629
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0021
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-umcsent_stock-ptlo_monthly_5y