Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Portillo's Inc. Class A Common Stock (PTLO) vs Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Correlation
of % moves
-36%
In sync
of periods
38%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
58
These move in the same direction about 38% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~13% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
PTLO moves ~5 months before Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Watch PTLO for an early read on Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
38%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-36%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-57% → -11%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
58 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,225
800
Normalized
1,225
800
Prepared
60
800
Aligned
58
58
Invalid removed
R²(i)
13%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
56
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+5 months
Correlation at this shift
-45%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator shifted 5 months earlier. Reads: "Does Portillo's Inc. Class A Common Stock (PTLO) today line up with Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator 5 months from now?"
46 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-36%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+5 months
-45%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+72%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-62%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-60%
38 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
744
A: 2 / B: 742
Series A
Portillo's Inc. Class A Common Stock (PTLO)
PTLO
Stock · 1,225 raw → 60 prepared
Series B
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 800 raw → 800 prepared
Sign agreement
77.4%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1634
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0053
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-sahmrealtime_stock-ptlo_monthly_5y