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Correlation
of % moves
+33%
In sync
of periods
35%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-01
18
These move in the same direction about 35% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~11% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Real GDP moves ~7 months before PTLO
Watch Real GDP for an early read on PTLO.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
35.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+33%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-18% → +70%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
18 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,151
317
Normalized
1,151
317
Prepared
56
317
Aligned
18
18
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
10.6%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
18
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -7 to 7 months.
Selected shift
-7 months
Correlation at this shift
+59%
+27% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real GDP shifted 7 months later. Reads: "Does PTLO today line up with Real GDP 7 months ago?"
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+33%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-7 months
+59%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+37%
11 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
337
A: 38 / B: 299
Series A
PTLO
Stock · 1,151 raw → 56 prepared
Series B
Real GDP
GDPC1
FRED · 317 raw → 317 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0064
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0063
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-gdpc1_stock-ptlo_monthly_5y