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Correlation
of values
+40%
In sync
of periods
46%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
387
These move in the same direction about 46% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~16% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+40%
Based on values
95% CI
+31% → +48%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
387 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
808
388
Normalized
808
388
Prepared
808
388
Aligned
387
387
Invalid removed
R²(i)
15.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
387
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+40%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
387 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+40%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+40%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+97%
23 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+22%
37 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-55%
73 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
422
A: 421 / B: 1
Series A
Personal Savings Rate
PSAVERT
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Series B
U-6 Unemployment Rate
U6RATE
FRED · 388 raw → 388 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
28
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.4099
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
7.6355
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-psavert_fred-u6rate_monthly_5y