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Correlation
of values
+35%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
797
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~12% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+35%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
797 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
798
809
Normalized
798
809
Prepared
798
809
Aligned
797
797
Invalid removed
12%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
797
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+35%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
797 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+35%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+35%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-13%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+100%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-87%
18 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
13
A: 1 / B: 12
Series A
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 798 raw → 798 prepared
Series B
Personal Savings Rate
PSAVERT
FRED · 809 raw → 809 prepared
Sign agreement
63.1%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
33
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.2557
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
7.8198
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-psavert_fred-sahmrealtime_monthly_5y