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Permian Resources Corporation (PR) vs St. Louis Financial Stress Index
Correlation
of % moves
-24%
In sync
of periods
43%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-22
196
These move in the same direction about 43% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~6% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
PR moves ~10 weeks before St. Louis Financial Stress Index
Watch PR for an early read on St. Louis Financial Stress Index.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
43.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-24%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-37% → -11%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
196 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
946
1,692
Normalized
946
1,692
Prepared
198
1,692
Aligned
196
196
Invalid removed
R²(i)
6.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
196
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+10 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-33%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
St. Louis Financial Stress Index shifted 10 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does Permian Resources Corporation (PR) today line up with St. Louis Financial Stress Index 10 weeks from now?"
185 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-24%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+10 weeks
-33%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+1%
49 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-29%
35 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-70%
111 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,498
A: 2 / B: 1496
Series A
Permian Resources Corporation (PR)
PR
Stock · 946 raw → 198 prepared
Series B
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,692 raw → 1,692 prepared
Sign agreement
5.6%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
31
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.4598
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0046
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-stlfsi4_stock-pr_weekly_5y