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Permian Resources Corporation (PR) vs St. Louis Financial Stress Index
Correlation
of % moves
-25%
In sync
of periods
43%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-26
200
These move in the same direction about 43% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~6% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
PR moves ~10 weeks before St. Louis Financial Stress Index
Watch PR for an early read on St. Louis Financial Stress Index.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
43%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-25%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
200 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
964
1,696
Normalized
964
1,696
Prepared
202
1,696
Aligned
200
200
Invalid removed
6%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
199
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+10 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-32%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
St. Louis Financial Stress Index shifted 10 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does Permian Resources Corporation (PR) today line up with St. Louis Financial Stress Index 10 weeks from now?"
189 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-25%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+10 weeks
-32%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-3%
50 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-26%
36 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-70%
113 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,498
A: 2 / B: 1496
Series A
Permian Resources Corporation (PR)
PR
Stock · 964 raw → 202 prepared
Series B
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,696 raw → 1,696 prepared
Sign agreement
5.5%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
29
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.4384
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0046
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-stlfsi4_stock-pr_weekly_5y