Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
-38%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
532
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~14% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-38%
Based on values
95% CI
-45% → -30%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
532 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
11,110
1,360
Normalized
11,110
1,360
Prepared
534
1,360
Aligned
532
532
Invalid removed
R²(i)
14.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
532
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-38%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
532 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-38%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-38%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+14%
20 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+51%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-15%
27 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
830
A: 2 / B: 828
Series A
10Y-3M Yield Spread
T10Y3M
FRED · 11,110 raw → 534 prepared
Series B
PPI: All Commodities
PPIACO
FRED · 1,360 raw → 1,360 prepared
Sign agreement
89.1%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-14.8729
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
183.1756
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-ppiaco_fred-t10y3m_monthly_5y